Research Associate, Seafood Economist

ECS seeks a full-time remote Research Associate Seafood Economist to support the Economics and Social Analysis Division in NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology.

• The candidate will develop a seafood demand modeling toolbox in collaboration with a subject matter expert.
• Preference will be given to candidates local to the Silver Spring, MD (Washington DC metro) area to allow the ability for occasional on-site check-ins. All candidates will be considered.
• Minimum of monthly check-ins with the NOAA Fisheries POC required; on-site check-ins not required.

Context:

Seafood demand models are a partial equilibrium modeling framework used to capture the relationship between the quantity of a seafood commodity and its prices while accounting for exogenous market conditions and substitute seafood products. The primary objective of this project will be to develop models that estimate the responsiveness of prices within the demand system to regulatory changes including catch levels and tariffs, as well as relevant exogenous shocks such as changes global supply.

This project will develop a toolbox that will enable NOAA Fisheries to analyze and model the economic demand for seafood products in the United States, taking into account various factors such as consumer preferences, economic indicators, environmental considerations, and market dynamics. Project will focus on set of species (complexes) that that are nationally or regionally significant and will focus on the post-harvest trade and domestic supply chains. In general, we will be modeling relatively high volume species for which there is good species and product information throughout the supply chain. We anticipate that our budget will be sufficient to create demand models for approximately 10 species. The number of species and markets modeled is flexible depending on actual costs and quotes.

The results of the project will be used to provide elasticities and price flexibilities and well as welfare estimates for use in management analyses and as an input to future efforts to build computable general equilibrium models. The toolbox should be designed so that NOAA Fisheries research can utilize and adapt the models to explore and provide management advice for potential market and management hypothetical scenarios.

Objectives:

1. To understand the current market for seafood products in the U.S. and responsiveness of prices to changing regulation and market conditions.
2. To identify and quantify the key drivers of seafood demand.
3. To develop a robust suite of demand models that can predict future trends and provide management advice.
4. To provide insights for stakeholders in the seafood industry.

Tasks:

Phase 1: Project Scoping

• Work with NOAA Fisheries researchers to broadly outline the modeling framework, species under consideration (including potential aggregation into species complexes), and refine objectives to guide data collection and modeling efforts.

Phase 2: Data Collection and Analysis

• Gather relevant data on fisheries and seafood volume, value, and prices as well as consumption, demographics, and economic indicators (see available data below). Determine any data gaps and communicate those to NOAA Fisheries researchers.
• Conduct descriptive analysis of the collected data to identify trends, correlations and connections relevant to the mode building process.

Phase 3: Demand Modeling

• Develop economic demand models for species and seafood products selected.
• Incorporate factors such as consumer preferences, income levels, market competition, and environmental sustainability.
• Validate the model with historical data and refine it as necessary.

Phase 4: Reporting and Recommendations

• Prepare a report presenting the findings and recommendations.
• Provide insights for seafood industry stakeholders to optimize their strategies.

Available Data:

Researchers will be able to leverage the data available within NOAA Fisheries to carry out the analysis. At the national level NOAA Fisheries maintains is comprehensive annual data by state on landings (ex-vessel) volume, value, and prices. If necessary it may be possible to obtain landings data at a higher spatial or temporal resolution for some fish species. Data on the processing sector volume value and price is available through NOAA Fisheries Processed Products Database. International seafood trade data is available through NOAA Fisheries trade data portal for trade between the U.S. and the ROW. Additional, international trade data between countries not involving the U.S. is available through Global Trade Atlas. Weekly retail seafood market data (at a quarterly lag) is available by state and product type. There is no known source for comprehensive data on seafood sales in the food service sector, though there are some broad indicators that may be of use. Additional data purchase may be an option depending on cost and value to the project.

Proposed Timeline (negotiable):

• Phase 1: Project scoping 1-2 months from the date of hire
• Phase 2: Data Collection and Analysis Completion: 4-6 months from date of hire
• Phase 3: Demand Model Development and Validation: 12-14 months from date of hire (contingent upon funding)
• Phase 4: Final Reporting and Recommendations: 18 months from date of hire (contingent upon funding)

Pay Range: $77,000 to $92,000

• 7 years of relevant experience in economics or related fields
• Extensive experience coding in R (preferable) or Stata (note: you will be asked to submit a code sample)